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Author: Miles Deutscher Source: Miles Deutscher X account Translation: Shenchao TechFlow The 4-year cycle has come to an end. We are entering a new paradigm in cryptocurrency—survival of the fittest, elimination of the unfit. Here are my strategies for navigating market changes in 2025 to continue accumulating wealth in uncharted territory. Before sharing my strategies, let’s explore why the 4-year cycle has become a thing of the past. I believe there are two reasons why the 4-year cycle is no longer applicable. First, from the supply side, the halving effect of Bitcoin ($BTC) is gradually diminishing. With each halving, the reduction in the issuance of new Bitcoins is becoming smaller. For example, the halvings in 2012 and 2016 saw reductions of 50% and 25% in issuance, respectively, which had a significant impact on market prices. However, by 2024, the reduction in issuance due to halving is only 6.25%. This means that the price-driving effect of halving is no longer as strong as before. Second, from the demand side, the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs is a significant variable that has permanently changed the market rules. Bitcoin ETFs are financial instruments that allow investors in traditional financial markets to invest in Bitcoin indirectly. Since their launch, they have become the most successful ETF products in history, with demand far exceeding expectations. This influx of demand has not only changed the overall landscape of the crypto market but has also broken many old market rules (such as the 4-year cycle). The greatest impact of ETFs is reflected in the altcoin market. Let me elaborate. In the past, you might have often seen a chart showing the price rotation relationship between Bitcoin and altcoins. This was indeed valid in 2021. But now, this relationship has broken down. (The original image is from Miles Deutscher , compiled by Shenchao TechFlow) In 2017 and 2021, when Bitcoin prices rose, many wealthy Bitcoin whales would transfer profits into altcoins on centralized exchanges (CEX), thus driving the prosperity of the altcoin market. However, now most new funds are entering the market through Bitcoin ETFs, and these funds are not flowing into the altcoin market. In other words, the way funds flow has fundamentally changed, and altcoins no longer benefit from the wealth effect of Bitcoin. Retail investors have directly flocked to high-risk speculative projects on-chain, known as "on-chain casino games" (Pump Fun). Compared to 2021, the number of retail investors in this cycle has significantly decreased. This is mainly due to the pressures of the macroeconomic environment and the fact that many suffered heavy losses in the last cycle due to events like LUNA, FTX, BlockFi, and Voyager. However, those retail players who remain in the market have directly skipped mainstream coins and chosen to seek opportunities on-chain. You can read my detailed analysis of how this phenomenon affects the market here . If my judgment is correct, meaning that cycle theory is no longer applicable, what changes can we expect in the future market? I have one piece of bad news and one piece of good news to share. The bad news is: It has become harder to "lie flat and make money." This is a natural signal of the industry's gradual maturation. In fact, there are now more trading opportunities in the market, but if you continue to use strategies from 2021—such as holding a bunch of altcoins and quietly waiting for the "altcoin season" to arrive—you may be disappointed or even perform poorly. The good news is: Since there is no longer a so-called four-year cycle, this also means that prolonged bear markets triggered by specific factors in cryptocurrency will no longer occur. Of course, from a macroeconomic perspective, long-term bear markets are still possible, as cryptocurrencies do not operate in isolation, and their correlation with the macroeconomy is now tighter than ever. The market's "risk appetite periods" and "risk aversion periods" are more likely to be driven by changes in macroeconomic conditions. These changes often trigger short-term mini echo bubbles, rather than sustained months of one-sided upward trends. The so-called echo bubbles refer to short-term market rebounds brought about by changes in the macro environment, which, while smaller in scale, share similarities with past large bubbles. In these bubbles, there are plenty of opportunities to make money. For example, in 2024, we witnessed rotations of different hot spots: November was the meme craze, December was the AI concept, and January was for AI agents. Undoubtedly, new trends will emerge next. If you are sharp enough, these are excellent opportunities to make money, but they require a strategy that is slightly different from past cycles. A few days ago, I had dinner with @gametheorizing , who made a very insightful point. Many people are pursuing an ultimate goal: whether it's to multiply their portfolio by 5, 10, or even 20 times. But in fact, a better strategy is to focus on multiple small bets rather than going all-in. By continuously accumulating a series of small victories, the long-term returns from this approach may be greater. Therefore, instead of betting everything and hoping for the altcoin season to quickly double your assets, try to accumulate wealth through the compounding effect of time. Specifically, you can adopt the following strategy: Small bets > Take profits, re-bet > Take profits again, repeat. This is also why many top traders and thinkers in the crypto space (like Jordi) were once professional poker players. They learned to view each trade through the lens of probability, assessing possible outcomes rather than betting blindly. My portfolio is currently allocated as follows: 50% invested in high-conviction assets with long-term potential, and 50% in stablecoins and active trading. I will use this portion of funds to seek short-term opportunities in the market, entering and exiting flexibly. Additionally, I use stablecoins as a benchmark for measuring the success or failure of trades. Each time I exit a trade, I convert profits back into stablecoins, allowing me to clearly see my earnings. If your cryptocurrency portfolio is too diversified and you don't know how to respond to current market changes, last week I shared a guide that explains how to optimize your portfolio based on market changes. In this article, I emphasized a key point: the importance of setting "invalidation" standards for each trade. Just like when you decide to buy a certain cryptocurrency, you need a clear reason to validate your choice. "Invalidation" refers to the criteria for exiting a trade promptly when market conditions no longer meet your expectations. I have noticed that many people enter trades without basic risk management awareness and without setting clear exit criteria. This often leads to unnecessary losses. If you are looking for a suggestion that can significantly enhance your future profitability, it is this: Establish clear technical or fundamental "invalidation" standards for each trade. This will not only help you manage risk better but also improve the overall efficiency of your trades. Of course, your confidence level in a trade and the expected holding period may influence how you set "invalidation" standards or trigger conditions. But regardless, this does not change the fact that you need to plan ahead. Having a clear exit plan is one of the keys to successful trading. Although the current market may not fully adhere to past cyclical patterns, I remain optimistic about the future. As long as you maintain the right mindset and strategy, 2025 still holds great potential for growth. Currently, we are in a bear market phase, but market trends will eventually change, bringing many new opportunities. Before that, your primary goal is to survive. The returns in the cryptocurrency market often belong to those who can endure through extreme volatility. No matter how the market fluctuates, patience and resilience are the keys to ultimate success.

Blockchain security firm SlowMist has identified a critical vulnerability in Four.Meme, a meme coin launchpad on Binance Smart Chain (BSC), where attackers could manipulate PancakeSwap v3 pools to exploit token launches. The vulnerability stemmed from the fact that Four.Meme does not implement price verification checks which allowed malicious users to create pools with deliberately skewed prices before scheduled token launches. SlowMist explained that when new tokens migrate to PancakeSwap v3 and add liquidity, they automatically adopt these manipulated price points, thereby enabling attackers to drain pool assets. According to blockchain security company PeckShield’s findings, the incident resulted in attackers making off with approximately $183,000. BSC-Based Meme Coin Launchpad Reacts In response to a recent malicious attack, Four.Meme announced suspending token liquidity pools on PancakeSwap to safeguard user assets. The development team also said that it is actively addressing the issue and will restore liquidity once a fix is implemented. Meanwhile, on-chain trading remains operational. In its official statement, Four.Meme stated, “Rest assured, internal funds are SAFU and unaffected by this attack. We will continue to monitor the situation and provide timely updates to the community. Thank you for your understanding and support!” Four.Meme initially captured market attention following the volatile performance of the Test (TST) token. Since then, the platform’s popularity surged dramatically. In fact, data compiled by Dune analytics reveal user growth reached its peak on February 9 with 11,473 unique addresses. However, as of February 11th, data shows user engagement has significantly contracted to 5,301 addresses. The latest attack has increased concerns regarding the security of meme coin launchpads as it reflected a pattern of similar incidents in the industry. This event is reminiscent of last May when Solana-based meme coin launchpad Pump.fun suffered a flash loan attack, which caused $2 million in losses. Increasing Illicit Activities Targeting Web3 Zooming out, with the rise in cryptocurrency adoption, there has been an increase in the variety of illicit on-chain activities. SlowMist’s January report revealed Web3 security incidents climbed to $98.19 million in losses across 40 hacking attacks, which caused about $87.94 million in damages, with $1.47 million successfully recovered. Major incidents include a $70 million hot wallet breach at Singapore-based exchange Phemex on January 23 and a $7.2 million exploit of P2P trading platform NoOnes’ Solana bridge on January 1. The post BSC-Based Meme Coin LaunchPad Four.Meme Suffers $183K Exploit appeared first on CryptoPotato.

Cardano (ADA) is becoming all the rage with its social media presence seeing a serious spike, leaving Ethereum and Dogecoin in the dust. Crypto guru Dan Gambardello pointed out on X that ADA has become a hot topic in crypto discussions, showing growing optimism in its potential. Sure, Bitcoin still runs the show in the conversation department, but Cardano’s rising volume suggests that more attention is being paid to its progress and price action. A big news for Cardano has been its collaboration with Microsoft. Charles Hoskinson, the founder of Cardano, had recently teased a high-profile meeting with a mystery guest later this month. This could be a huge deal for the blockchain as it explores new partnerships that could supercharge its network. Related: Cardano (ADA) Price Drop May Be Over: Analyst Sees an Imminent Rebound based on TD Sequential Indicator Additionally, Grayscale has filed for a Cardano ETF, its first product solely focused on ADA. This move is right in line with the broader trend of traditional financial institutions recognizing the value of digital assets. If it gets the green light, the ETF could provide institutional investors with a new way to invest in Cardano, ramping up demand and boosting the price. Going through the charts, Dan Gambardello noted that Cardano’s price action is similar to previous cycles. He notes that Cardano is currently experiencing a consolidation phase between key moving averages, similar to patterns seen in previous bull markets. The 20-day and 50-week moving averages provide critical support levels, with ADA hanging around 70 cents. The key Fibonacci levels between 63 and 57 cents are under the microscope, as they represent crucial price zones that could determine ADA’s next move. Related: Cardano (ADA) Dips, But Analysts Eye Major Price Surge Additionally, looking at ADA’s short-term price action, analysts are eyeing the 50-week moving average, which aligns with the Fibonacci level of around 58 cents. However, ADA may face short-term volatility, potentially testing lower support levels before a breakout. Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is for informational and educational purposes only. The article does not constitute financial advice or advice of any kind. Coin Edition is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of the utilization of content, products, or services mentioned. Readers are advised to exercise caution before taking any action related to the company.

HOT 🥵 CPI 0.5% MoM, Exp. 0.3% CPI Core 0.4% MoM, Exp. 0.3% CPI 3.0% YoY, Exp. 2.9% CPI Core 3.3% YoY, Exp. 3.1%

The $BERA/USDT pair is making waves in the crypto market, currently trading at *5.4251* with a *+4.95% surge. With a 24-hour high of **6.3474* and a low of *5.1613*, the coin is showing strong volatility and trading activity, making it a hot topic for both traders and long-term investors.   Market Analysis   $BERA is riding a bullish wave, with a *+2.63% gain today* and a *+4.64% increase over the past week*. The Moving Averages (MA) are painting a positive picture:   - MA(5): *5.5732*   - MA(10): *5.7125*   - MA(20): *5.5840*   The price is currently above the MA(20), indicating strong support. The *24-hour volume of 4.87M BERA* and a turnover of *27.26M USDT* highlight significant market interest.   Technology and Features   Built on a *public chain, $BERA offers transparency, scalability, and low transaction fees. Its focus on **interoperability* and cross-chain functionality makes it a standout in the blockchain ecosystem. Recent upgrades have further enhanced its network efficiency and security.   Tokenomics  $BERA’s tokenomics are designed for long-term value. With a capped supply and mechanisms like *burning and staking*, the coin ensures scarcity and incentivizes holding. This deflationary model is a key driver of its price appreciation.   Community and Sentiment  The $BERA community is thriving, with growing engagement on social media and forums. Sentiment is overwhelmingly *bullish*, fueled by recent partnerships and technological advancements. Institutional interest is also on the rise, adding to the coin’s credibility.   Risk and Challenges   While $BERA has strong fundamentals, it’s not without risks. Market volatility, regulatory changes, and competition from other blockchain projects could impact its growth. Investors should stay informed and cautious.   Investment Outlook  The current price of *5.42* is an attractive entry point for both short-term traders and long-term investors. Key levels to watch:   - *Support:* 5.1613   - *Resistance:* 6.3474   A breakout above *6.3474* could signal further upward momentum, making it a good time to buy. For traders, selling near resistance levels could lock in profits.   News and Updates Recent developments include strategic partnerships and network upgrades, which have boosted investor confidence. These updates are likely to drive further adoption and price appreciation.   Conclusion and Recommendation $BERA is *bullish* in the short to medium term. Here’s what you should do:   - *Buy Zone:* 5.16 - 5.42 (ideal for accumulation)   - *Sell Zone:* 6.34 - 6.50 (take profits near resistance)   - *Hold Strategy:* If you believe in the project’s long-term potential, holding could yield significant returns.   Next Move:  - *Bullish Scenario:* If $BERA breaks *6.3474, expect a rally towards **7.00*.   - *Bearish Scenario:* A drop below *5.1613* could indicate a short-term correction.   Final Thoughts:   $BERA is a promising project with strong fundamentals and a bullish outlook. Whether you’re trading or holding, this coin offers exciting opportunities. Always remember to *DYOR (Do Your Own Research)* and manage your risk effectively.   $BERA