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February’s PCE inflation data just dropped—and it's sending a clear warning to the markets. Headline PCE inflation came in at 2.5%, perfectly matching forecasts. But here’s where things get spicy: ♦️ Core PCE inflation rose to 2.8%, above expectations of 2.7%. ♦️ January’s Core PCE was revised upward to 2.7% from the originally reported 2.6%. ♦️ This marks a clear acceleration in core inflation, which excludes food and energy—the Fed’s favorite measure for judging inflation trends. While headline numbers may appear tame, Core inflation tells the real story—and it’s not the one bulls want to hear. ♦️ So what does this mean? Core inflation is reaccelerating. This is especially worrying considering that… ♦️ Economic growth forecasts are trending downward. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model was recently slashed, and other economic indicators—from housing to retail—are cooling off. ♦️ Meanwhile, inflationary pressures are not going away. Sticky services inflation, rising insurance costs, and continued wage pressures are keeping core PCE above the Fed’s 2% target. ♦️ This combo is a textbook setup for stagflation. Low growth + high inflation = the market’s worst nightmare. ♦️ Add in geopolitical stress, and the fire only grows hotter: ♦️ The ongoing trade war is adding fuel to the inflation fire. Tariffs, supply chain disruptions, and reduced global cooperation are all pushing input prices up across sectors. And the worst may still be to come… ♦️ March inflation data is now the big catalyst. If core inflation continues rising next month, the Fed will have no choice but to stay hawkish, even as the economy slows. This puts both equities and crypto at serious risk if rate cut hopes start fading again. ♦️ TL;DR: Core PCE at 2.8% = higher than expected January revised up = trend worsening Growth falling + inflation rising = STAGFLATION brewing Markets are flying blind if they’re only watching the surface. The real risk lies beneath. Stay alert, stay hedged, and keep your eye on March’s numbers. Because what’s coming could define the rest of 2025. Let me know if you want a meme or chart included to go with it!