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We will know in a few days if it follows or breaks free from this fractal

President Donald Trump announced a plan to ease the burden of the new 25% tariffs on foreign-made vehicles and parts. Under the proposal, automakers with US factories can claim credits on import taxes based on sales volume and suggested retail prices. White House officials said the proposal will use a formula tied to the number of cars sold in the United States and the price of each model. Officials added that the relief will run for two years, giving businesses time to redesign their supply chains without facing the full cost of the tariffs. They also confirmed that parts made in Canada and Mexico under North American free trade rules will remain exempt from the 25% levy. The announcement comes as President Trump prepares to hold a rally in Michigan on Tuesday to mark his first 100 days in office. Michigan is a key battleground state and the heart of the US auto industry. Michigan is also home to Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis, and a network of more than 1,000 major suppliers to the sector. These companies have been in limbo since March, when Trump unveiled 25% tariffs on cars and car parts, saying he wanted to boost domestic manufacturing for national security. Consumers raced to buy vehicles ahead of the tariffs , causing a short-lived sales spike. However, the move also forced manufacturers to rethink production schedules and supply arrangements under pressure. When General Motors reported its quarterly results to investors on Tuesday, it said the duties would force it to revise its full-year forecast and withdraw its previous guidance. In an unusual step, General Motors also postponed its earnings call, which was set to discuss the figures. The 25% tariff on foreign-made cars, which accounted for nearly half of US vehicle sales last year, went into effect last month. Tariffs on parts were scheduled to begin on 3 May. Last week, a coalition of US motor groups representing companies such as General Motors , Toyota, and Volkswagen sent a letter asking the president not to impose the duties on parts. They warned that the levies would “lead to higher auto prices for consumers, lower sales at dealerships, and make servicing and repairing vehicles both more expensive.” Under the adjusted plan, automakers can claim an “offset” on what they pay in parts tariffs worth up to 3.75% of a vehicle’s suggested retail price in the first year, falling to 2.5% in the second year. According to the White House, any car with at least 85% of its parts made in the US, Canada, or Mexico will avoid the 25% duty at first. That threshold will rise to 90% in year two. Officials described the update as an acknowledgment that today’s auto supply chains span the globe, noting that even vehicles marketed as American-made often include parts from abroad. They also said the auto tariffs would not stack on top of existing steel and aluminium duties, preventing firms from paying multiple charges on the same materials. Automakers welcomed news of the softened stance. “We’re grateful to President Trump for his support of the US automotive industry and the millions of Americans who depend on us,” General Motors’ chief executive, Mary Barra, said in an emailed statement. “We appreciate the productive conversations with the President and his Administration and look forward to continuing to work together.” Ford said the move would “help mitigate the impact of tariffs on automakers, suppliers and consumers,” adding, “We will continue to work closely with the administration in support of the president’s vision for a healthy and growing auto industry in America.” The company called policies that encouraged exports and ensured affordable supply chains “essential,” and said if major importers matched Ford’s commitment to US manufacturing, the country would see “a windfall of new assembly and supplier factories and hundreds of thousands of new jobs.” Stellantis chairman John Elkann said, “We look forward to our continued collaboration with the US administration to strengthen a competitive American auto industry and stimulate exports.” Cryptopolitan Academy: Coming Soon - A New Way to Earn Passive Income with DeFi in 2025. Learn More

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@Dune If you have any questions or feedback, feel free to reach out! For more insights, explore the "Arbitrum MEV: Liquidations" dashboard here:

Advanced Orderflow: Orderflow is a very powerful tool in trading. For me, it can’t stand on its own, but it provides clear signals and strong confluence for your levels and helps show whether a move still has fuel left or not. As you all know, I love using Orderflow in my analysis to get a better understanding of the real sentiment, not just what people say they’re doing. Orderflow shows me the actual money flow and how the majority is positioned. Because of that, I can narrow down the max pain move and where the largest pools of liquidity are sitting, ready to be taken. Orderflow is so powerful because it reveals the underlying principle of the market: Buying and Selling. In the end, this is all that truly creates price movement and volatility. On one side, you have the buyers, driving or holding price up; on the other, the sellers, pushing price down or keeping it steady. Volatility arises from the divergence between buyers and sellers. If you understand the basics of the Orderbook, you can start extracting signals from Orderflow by refining your understanding. The first step is becoming aware of the different types of participants in the market. Aggressive Buyers&Sellers: These types of players are the ones working with market orders. They actively remove liquidity from the order book and move price when the book is too thin to absorb their orders completely. On high-volume assets, most of us won’t move the price even a dime. The books are simply too thick. This is actually one of the biggest advantages of being a small fish in the ocean: You can move without being noticed. Yeah, probably not completely stealthily as whales have access to all our data and know exactly how we behave as a swarm. They don’t care about our $5 stop loss individually, but collectively it adds up to a significant amount of liquidity they can use for their own game. Whales don’t play the game like we do. They rarely work with full-size market orders and when they do, it’s because they have very different intentions than us. They might want to open new trading ranges, fuel new narratives (like BTC breaking above 100k), or push people into mistakes to take their liquidity. They are willing to invest a certain amount into these moves just to keep the game alive and interesting. If you study Orderflow closely, you’ll notice that after a certain amount of time, ranges start to "run dry" and that's when they need to ignite a new move to keep retail engaged. Retail needs action, dreams, drama and narratives, and without it, the game would stall. This is when they really move price with aggressive market orders. Otherwise, they mostly rely on limit orders, which is their preferred way of building or unwinding positions over time without being easily spotted. If there isn’t enough time or they need to get rid of positions faster than other whales, assets can nuke quite heavily. You can spot this more clearly on lower-volume or younger assets. The lower the volume and the thinner the order books, the easier it is to move price, but this isn't a big advantage for real whales with real size. Scammer larps love their low-volume shitcoins for exactly this reason: They can move price easily with relatively small amounts of money. If they also control the supply (for example, through mining or token allocations), the game becomes even easier for them. Just like the big whales, they create narratives and price moves to attract retail, just on a smaller scale. Meanwhile, real whales play the same game on the world stage, crafting not only market narratives but also real-world events, which they then spread through their own media channels or via friendly outlets. Nowadays, most of these whale games are played automatically by the infamous algorithms. And it's not just one algorithm running the market, it’s many. All of them are designed to hijack retail traders emotions and weaknesses, pushing them into bad decisions. These algorithms are programmed with one core purpose: To create volatility, liquidity and target key levels. So as you can see now the aggressive side of the order book is the reason for the moves that we a so love, but now lets have a look at limit orders. Passive Buyers&Sellers: These are the kinds of traders who are patient, have a certain size that doesn’t allow them to use market orders, or simply want to get their assets at a specific price or are willing to pay a small spread. Its important to understand that limit orders don't move the price. If you look into the order book, you’ll see it’s filled with limit orders. You can either use your exchange’s order book or specialised software that makes those walls of orders more visible. But be careful with these "walls", whales know a lot of people are watching them, so they often spoof walls to trick others into thinking a strong reversal level is forming. To be honest, I haven’t found a strong direct trading edge from these walls, even though I have software for it. I don’t use it to make trade decisions, but it tremendously helped me improve my overall understanding of market structure and behaviour. Once you truly understand these dynamics, your entire game will change. You’ll start to see what really moves price and how narratives are crafted around it. So, knowing now that big players fill their bags over time using limit orders, you can also understand why they need fear at bottoms and euphoria at tops. They want to load up at the best prices and offload at the best prices as well. The thing is, a whale doesn’t really care about selling at 95k or 110k, they just want to exit their bags somewhere in that general area without nuking price through the order book. That’s why tops and bottoms on high-volume assets take time to form. It's a completely different game than the one we play and you really need to understand this if you want to survive. They aren't making moves based on speculative dreams like "BTC to one million in 2026." They fuel those narratives to make you believe it and then they use your liquidity to quietly exit on the other side. So as you can see, limit orders are a very effective tool for whales to on-/offload positions, all while using their algorithms to create liquidity inside these ranges. This constant activity ensures they can drain the market 24/7, while also building and managing their long-term positions without exposing themselves. 💡Remember: Whales can't make a dime without your liquidity and the entire game is designed to extract exactly that. The most powerful tool I’ve found for applying this limit order knowledge is CVD, so let’s talk about that. CVD: CVD stands for Cumulative Volume Delta, and it shows the relationship between buying and selling in relation to price. CVD is the aggressive side of the participants, but it still shows you what the bigger passive fish are doing. I talk about a bullish divergence when price is moving up while CVD is either flat or even going down. This tells me that aggressive sellers are stepping in, but they’re not able to push price down. It signals that a bigger player is absorbing the sell-side liquidity, probably after stop hunts or with an even bigger goal in mind, like establishing a new trading range. A bearish divergence is the opposite: Price is steady or moving down while aggressive buyers are stepping in but fail to lift the price. Same principle here: A large passive seller is absorbing all of that buying pressure. His goal could be to trap buyers, hunt their stops later, or aim for a larger objective. In both cases, it’s usually wiser to side with the passive player, the obviously more powerful fish. Most of the time, the aggressive side is being used by those passive players. They are the ones going long or short at the worst possible moments, getting trapped, and becoming the reason why a move continues higher or lower. Trapped traders are the whales profit. The whale simply needs to push price far enough against the trapped side until they either capitulate or get stopped out, which creates liquidity. 🔹For shorts, this means they are forced to buy back their borrowed shares, adding buy-side liquidity. 🔹 For longs, it’s the opposite, their stops add sell-side liquidity. This liquidity becomes the whale’s profit or it’s used as an opportunity to onload or offload their real positions, just like we talked about earlier. Funding Rate: Funding rate is a very powerful tool and even better, it’s free. The funding rate shows the difference between longs and shorts, and it helps keep the market relatively balanced by adding a fee to whichever side is overexposed. For us, the important part is the signal that funding gives us. As mentioned, funding shows the imbalance between longs and shorts. If you’ve been around crypto for a while and are familiar with funding rates, you already know that funding is usually positive most of the time. If you look at a HTF chart of BTC alongside its funding rates, you’ll see that it’s actually a pretty simple strategy to buy when funding turns negative. This usually happens at major bottoms and shows how people are maximum bearish at the worst possible point, but it doesn't mean it the ultimate bottom is in for sure! On a HTF basis, this is a great confluence tool for me when scaling into or out of spot positions. Now let’s combine this knowledge with Open Interest (OI) to refine our approach even further and even get real trading signals, not just spot market insights. Open Interest: OI shows you whether new futures positions are being opened or existing ones are being closed. When you combine OI with funding, you can tell if the current pump is being driven by closing shorts (buyers) or closing longs (sellers) and that’s extremely important. 🔹 If a lot of new longs are piling in, it’s often a sign that the move is starting to overheat. 🔹 On the other hand, if a move is triggered mostly by closing shorts (buyers) and even new shorts (sellers) are entering, there’s a good chance the move still has fuel to continue for a little longer. As mentioned earlier, people usually long tops and short bottoms. So if you see traders shorting into resistance or pumps, you should think twice, either size your own short smaller or maybe skip it altogether. If funding turns negative with rising OI during pumps, it tells you that sentiment is pretty bad, people are desperate and getting squeezed over and over again. On the other hand, if funding turns highly positive with rising OI into resistance, it adds strong confluence for your own short setup. Both concepts apply vice versa during dumps. If you see many longs stacking into a dump, you should consider skipping your own long, because you want to stay contrarian to the herd, not join it. Around major and powerful key long levels, funding usually turns negative anyway, but even if it doesn't, I would still start scaling into spot positions and longs there. It takes a little time to learn how to read funding and OI charts correctly, but it’s absolutely worth it. In my view, it's the realest sentiment indicator out there and on high-volume assets, it’s extremely reliable. Sentiment: People in crypto spend 90% of the time waiting for the "biggest altseason of all time" and position themselves accordingly. Only if it's really worth getting heavily positioned do they wait for either slightly lower prices or even full-blown Armageddon. This isn’t a coincidence, it’s by design and it works perfectly. The herd almost never gets it right, so you really want to make sure you're on the other side of their trade. If you look at X and the biggest crypto accounts and their thousands of followers, they’re basically always bullish, so they aren’t reliable indicators. On the flip side, you have the perma-bears who are always waiting for doomsday, which, looking at any zoomed-out chart in stocks or Bitcoin, is statistically an even worse approach. Reliable sentiment indicators are News and Orderflow, but they must be read correctly and not coloured by your bias or dreams. As mentioned before, you can use funding rates to gauge sentiment quite well: 🔹 If funding turns negative after a big drop, it’s usually a good time to start looking for buys. This doesn’t mean it's the absolute bottom, it could simply trigger a bounce to take out bottom shorts. You still need to combine this with good price action reading skills, and use it as secondary confluence. 🔹 If you see funding turning negative at resistance after a big pump, it shows that people still don’t trust the move and remain bearish these are often the moves that keep pushing higher until the crowd finally flips bullish. Sometimes, though rarely, funding turns negative at resistance, showing that many traders are shorting directly into the level. This usually happens after weeks or months of downside, once people have capitulated and finally turned bearish. They’re stuck waiting for "just a little lower" and can’t accept the reality that the move may already be reversing. See: Bitcoin Oct 2023 🔹 On the other side, if funding turns positive, it’s not an instant short signal. As said, it needs to be combined with proper price action. Funding is usually slightly positive anyway. What you really want to watch for are big spikes in funding and OI, like when BTC spiked above 100k or for the bearish example nuked to 16k in 2022. These spikes and overextensions, in both directions, are very reliable sentiment indicators. They show that people are giga bullish and are finally putting their money where their mouth is. Most of the time, this money gets taken shortly after, once the herd collectively decides to be bullish. Some Bonus Tips: 🔹 Use aggregated data if possible. The more data you have, the more reliable it becomes, it helps flatten out potential manipulation from single exchanges. 🔹 Stick to high-volume assets when using orderflow confluence. Higher volume makes it much harder for anyone to manipulate the data. 🔹 Before trading with orderflow, make sure you fully understand it. Spend time simply watching buyers and sellers battle during volatile moves without taking positions. Observation first, then integration into your strategy once you truly understand the dynamics. Alright guys, this is how I use Orderflow as confluence. If you want weekly updates on how I read Orderflow in real time, make sure to check out my weekly BTC updates.✌️