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Bitcoin price has been struggling to reclaim its bullish momentum after peaking earlier this year. As of March 29, 2025, BTC price is trading around $84,122, showing signs of weakness following a period of consolidation. With investors anxiously eyeing potential downside levels, one burning question dominates the crypto space: Will Bitcoin crash to $25,000? This analysis decodes the current market structure, moving averages, RSI signals, and price action patterns to offer a realistic outlook for Bitcoin in the days ahead. Looking at the daily chart , it’s evident that Bitcoin’s euphoric rally from late 2024 into early 2025 has faded significantly. After reaching highs near $110,000, the price began a series of lower highs and lower lows—a classic signal of a weakening trend. What’s more concerning is that Bitcoin has failed to reclaim its 50-day simple moving average (currently near $89,112), which now acts as dynamic resistance. The 20-day SMA has also crossed below the 50-day, indicating short-term bearish pressure. Bitcoin’s recent price decline can be attributed in large part to rising global trade tensions , which have injected a fresh wave of uncertainty into global financial markets. The U.S. government’s decision on March 25th to impose 25% tariffs on auto imports and other goods from Canada, Mexico, and China has intensified fears of a looming global economic slowdown. As a result, investor sentiment has soured across risk-on assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies. The S&P 500’s 1.85% drop since the announcement is a clear indication that traditional markets are also feeling the heat, and Bitcoin—often viewed as a high-volatility speculative asset—has not been spared. As protectionist measures ramp up and retaliatory trade actions loom, investors may continue to shift capital into safer, less volatile assets, causing continued selling pressure on BTC in the near term . If these macroeconomic headwinds persist without resolution, Bitcoin could struggle to find support and potentially revisit much lower levels, possibly even approaching the $70,000–$60,000 range in the coming weeks. >>Click Here to Trade Bitcoin on Bitget<< Yes, and here’s why it matters. The 100-day SMA at $93,885 and the 200-day SMA around $85,713 are now tightly compressing near the current price zone. Historically, when price battles the 200-day SMA from below and fails to hold, it often results in accelerated declines. If Bitcoin price decisively breaks below the 200-day SMA and holds under $83,000, that would open the gates toward much lower levels, triggering panic selling across retail and even institutional segments. >>Click Here to Trade Bitcoin on Bitget<< The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 43.09, well below the neutral 50 mark and clearly in bearish territory. RSI has not recovered above 50 since early March, suggesting that buyers are losing conviction while sellers are slowly gaining control. During strong uptrends, RSI tends to hover between 50 and 80. The failure to do so here reinforces the argument that Bitcoin could see more pain before any sustainable reversal. While a plunge to $25,000 seems extreme to many, it cannot be ruled out entirely. Bitcoin has a history of brutal corrections—often shedding 40–60% after making all-time highs. From its recent peak near $110,000, a 60% retracement would put BTC price right around the $44,000 level. But if macroeconomic uncertainties, regulatory crackdowns, or black swan events (like major exchange collapses) hit the market, psychological levels like $50,000, $35,000, and even $25,000 could come into play as panic overrides fundamentals. It's not the most likely scenario, but it's well within the realm of possibility—especially if key support levels break. >>Click Here to Trade Bitcoin on Bitget<< The most immediate support lies near $83,000, just under the 200-day SMA. If that level holds and Bitcoin price bounces back above $89,000, bulls could regain some short-term control. However, if the $80,000–83,000 range fails to hold, the next support zone sits around $72,000, followed by $60,000—both of which saw strong accumulation in past cycles. If these levels also crumble, then yes, $25,000 becomes a realistic downside target over a multi-month time frame. Right now, Bitcoin is in a precarious zone . The bulls are losing steam, momentum indicators are fading, and long-term moving averages are starting to compress in ways that often precede significant breakdowns. While a crash to $25,000 is not imminent, it's a scenario that traders and investors must prepare for if current supports fail to hold.

Over the past ten consecutive days, Bitcoin $BTC ETFs have continued to defy market headwinds, demonstrating robust inflows that underscore a growing institutional appetite for digital gold. Recent data shows that Fidelity’s FBTC fund received a hefty injection of $97 million, while BlackRock’s IBIT added nearly $4 million. Even though there were some outflows—amounting to $12 million from funds like BTCO and BTCW—the overall net inflow stood at an impressive $89 million. This steady stream of capital contrasts sharply with the performance of Ethereum ETFs, which have seen $4 million in outflows over the last 24 hours, signaling a clear institutional preference for Bitcoin. This trend highlights a broader narrative emerging within the crypto investment landscape. Institutional investors have traditionally favored assets that offer greater perceived stability and a clearer narrative as a store of value. Bitcoin’s reputation as “digital gold” continues to bolster its appeal, especially in times when regulatory frameworks and macroeconomic uncertainties loom large. The consistent inflows into Bitcoin ETFs reflect confidence in the asset’s long-term potential, even as market volatility remains a common feature. In contrast, Ethereum ETFs are losing traction. Despite Ethereum’s strong fundamentals and its pivotal role in powering decentralized finance and smart contract applications, its ETFs are struggling to gain the same level of institutional support. The $4 million outflow from Ethereum funds over just one day suggests that investors may be prioritizing risk-adjusted returns. With institutional capital flowing into Bitcoin ($BTC )and away from Ethereum, market dynamics could shift further in favor of the former—at least in the near term. Market experts note that while the cryptocurrency sector remains highly volatile, sustained institutional interest in Bitcoin ETFs could drive further price appreciation. The inflow figures not only help offset recent bearish market phases but also signal that many investors are repositioning their portfolios to capture potential upside from Bitcoin’s anticipated rally. Meanwhile, the continued outflows from Ethereum ETFs may force fund managers to re-evaluate their strategies, possibly by reducing fees or exploring additional value-added services to regain investor confidence. Overall, these developments underline the divergence in investor sentiment between Bitcoin ($BTC )and Ethereum. As traditional asset managers and institutional investors increasingly allocate capital to Bitcoin ETFs, Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against uncertainty appears to be solidifying. Whether this trend will persist in the coming months remains to be seen, but for now, the market seems to be favoring Bitcoin’s resilience and growth potential over the evolving, yet currently underperforming, Ethereum ecosystem.

The possibility of a U.S. recession in 2025 has ignited fierce debate among economists, financial institutions, and policymakers, with forecasts split between warnings of an imminent downturn and projections of continued growth. At the heart of the discourse lie conflicting interpretations of trade policies, market indicators, and the resilience of the U.S. dollar. A recession is typically defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, though the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) also considers broader factors like employment and industrial production. As of March 2025, the economic landscape remains fraught with uncertainty. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, coupled with fluctuating consumer confidence and market volatility, have intensified scrutiny of recession risks. Economist Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, has emerged as the most vocal proponent of a 2025 recession. Just recently, Schiff warned of a looming U.S. dollar crisis that could crash the economy, triggering soaring consumer prices and long-term interest rates. His prediction hinges on a collapse in confidence in the dollar, which he argues is overvalued and vulnerable to a sharp correction. Unlike many peers, Schiff’s stance is absolute, insisting a recession is inevitable rather than probabilistic. Other experts have adopted a more measured approach. Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan’s chief global economist, assigns a 40% chance of a 2025 recession, citing risks from trade policies and potential damage to the U.S.’s exorbitant privilege as the global reserve currency. Similarly, Yardeni Research, led by economist Edward Yardeni, raised its recession odds to 35% in March 2025, noting rising anxieties but stopping short of insistence. Both emphasize that economic forecasting remains inherently uncertain. In contrast, the Federal Reserve’s March 2025 projections paint a brighter picture, forecasting 1.9% GDP growth for the year. The Fed’s baseline scenario dismisses recession concerns, pointing to steady employment and industrial output. However, its GDP Now model flagged a potential Q1 2025 contraction of 1.5%, sparking brief alarm. Officials caution that a single quarter of negative growth does not equate to a recession, though it underscores the fragility of current forecasts. The UCLA Anderson Forecast has linked recession risks directly to policy outcomes. Economist Clement Bohr warned in March 2025 that fully implementing Trump’s proposed tariffs and federal job cuts could trigger sector-wide contractions. Meanwhile, analytics firm Expana predicted a global recession beginning in spring 2025, driven by synchronized slowdowns in major economies. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have also downgraded U.S. growth forecasts, though their recession probabilities remain lower. Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi highlighted rising mortgage delinquencies among homeowners with Federal Housing Administration-backed loans as a potential red flag. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, meanwhile, fell sharply in early 2025, reflecting dwindling short-term expectations for incomes, business conditions, and employment. Financial institutions like HSBC, Citi, and Barclays have downgraded U.S. equity outlooks, citing tariff-related uncertainties and their drag on corporate earnings. As of March 27, 2025, speculative traders on Polymarket’s prediction platform calculate a 39% likelihood of America sliding into recession this calendar year. Trump’s policies loom large in recession debates. His administration’s proposed and implemented tariffs on imports, paired with cuts to federal jobs, have drawn criticism from economists who argue such measures could stifle trade, inflate consumer prices, and erode business investment. The CNBC CFO Council reported that 60% of surveyed chief financial officers view policy uncertainty under Trump as a key recession driver, with many bracing for supply chain disruptions. A Deutsche Bank survey pegged the 12-month U.S. recession probability at 43%, while Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff estimates 30-35% odds, attributing risks to spending cuts and tariff fallout. Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital offered a starker view, placing the likelihood at 50-60%. A swelling consensus among economists and institutions raising alarms about 2025 recession threats points to deepening prudence as tectonic pressures—from dollar volatility to fractured supply chains—anchor current discussions. Though the U.S. central bank maintains guarded optimism, cautionary notes from figures like Schiff, Yardeni, and Expana, alongside major financial institutions, highlight anxieties that policy errors and waning consumer trust might trigger instability. Their collective vigilance mirrors an economy walking a tightrope between adaptability and structural stress. As authorities such as Gundlach, Rogoff, and Moody’s intensify recession warnings, 2025’s economic trajectory increasingly hinges on nimble policymaking confronting mounting challenges. Tariffs, fiscal contraction, and worldwide deceleration compose a hazardous trifecta that even upbeat projections cannot easily discount. With organizations revising growth estimates downward and families preparing for uncertainty, discussions now pivot not on whether crises will emerge, but on the magnitude with which geopolitical tremors and legislative decisions might precipitate contraction. 免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到[email protected]，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。

For much of March 26, the top cryptocurrency oscillated within a narrow corridor, briefly slipping to $85,869 around 3 p.m. ET. Global crypto asset exchanges recorded around $79.59 billion in trade volume during the session, with bitcoin’s share accounting for $26.84 billion. Bitcoin ( BTC) presently hovers below its March 25 peak of $88,539, achieved around 4 p.m. ET yesterday, as traders navigate a familiar script of price stabilization after record-breaking performances. At the time of writing, BTC is exchanging hands for $86,990 per coin. The leading digital currency’s current stasis mirrors historical episodes where it lingered in tight corridors post-peak, a choreography of supply and demand etched into its volatile DNA. Market oscillators hint at collective hesitation, with the $90,000 mark looming as a psychological barrier; breaching this fortress could reignite the algorithmic cavalry in a run toward $100,000. Political tremors from President Donald Trump’s tariff declarations—including a 25% levy on non-U.S. automobiles announced Wednesday—have rippled through equities and crypto markets alike. All of the major U.S. stock indices closed the day in the red. Meanwhile, Gamestop’s $1.3 billion fundraising gambit to fortify its BTC reserves added a subplot to the day’s financial theater. While BTC is $86,990 per coin on global exchanges like Bitstamp, in South Korea, on exchanges like Bithumb and Upbit, BTC is trading for a premium. In South Korea, BTC commands a modest premium as the Korean won cedes ground to the euro in trading pair prominence. The asset’s dominant pairings on Wednesday feature USDT, FDUSD, USD, USDC, EUR, and KRW, while Cryptoquant’s Coinbase Premium Index flickers with faint bullish signals. Bitcoin’s price action meanders through labyrinthine trading channels, its trajectory is still as unpredictable as quantum fluctuations. Potential accelerants loom: Continued institutional embrace via spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate balance sheet strategies could propel valuations. A dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve, spurred by cooling inflation or economic headwinds, might similarly electrify bitcoin. Yet, certainty remains elusive—a reminder that bitcoin markets thrive on ambiguity. Trump’s dual role as crypto cheerleader and tariff provocateur further muddies the waters, illustrating how policy whims can both invigorate and destabilize in one breath. 免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到[email protected]，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。

For two weeks, Bitcoin seemed to be pedaling in semolina, unable to climb above $90,000. Then, against all odds, the flagship crypto surged, finally crossing the dreaded $85,000 mark. A sigh of relief sweeps across the markets, but it’s not time for euphoria: could this breakthrough signal the start of a new rally? Or merely defer an inevitable drop towards $76,000? Ah, $85,000… a simple number, but oh so symbolic! For roller coaster enthusiasts, it’s the next turn (before $65,000 ?). For analysts like Ryan Lee from Bitget Research , it’s the lifeline: A weekly close above this level could avoid a descent towards $76,000 and signal a bullish recovery. A tad dramatic? Not quite, when we know that BTC is stagnating at +0.9% for the week. The scene is set: declining inflation, stable rates, looming trade war… Yet, Bitcoin hesitates. A psychological war is raging between hodlers and weekend sellers. According to SantinoCripto, “the bottom of this correction is around $75,000”. A cautious estimate, compared to some much darker voices. Alex Wacy, for instance, doesn’t mince his words: A return to $40,000 is possible. But beware of the magnifying effect. As Crypto Rand reminds us: So, should we tremble? Or simply breathe, hold on, and wait for the next twist? With the close above $85,000 ($85,255 at the time of writing this article), Bitcoin seems to have outsmarted the worst scenarios. If the momentum continues towards $87,000, technical signals could align to trigger a new bullish rally this week. Beyond the price, crypto market signals do not lie: long-term hodlers are getting active. Since February, these diehards have been quietly accumulating their BTC, far from panicked gazes. In just two months, over 250,000 BTC have been absorbed, increasing the supply held by these investors from 13.1 to 13.3 million BTC. It’s a sign, proclaim the on-chain oracles. A submarine movement, a silent rise. “These accumulations are what we should watch, not the short-term fluctuations,” notes Enmanuel Cardozo from Brickken. But should we view this as a mere crypto-ant reflex, or a harbinger of an explosion? The market is also driven by hopes for regulatory renewal. Will that be enough to reverse the trend? Especially since shadows persist: global tariff tensions loom until early April. Until then, the slightest tweet can upset the balance. Yet, in this theater of uncertainties, some see a broader choreography. Sandman Research summarizes this well: Bitcoin follows the curve of global liquidity like a faithful shadow. And it has just reached a peak. So, is it just a coincidence or a prelude to the next act of the bull run? Another factor not to be overlooked: the money supply. It also made a discreet reminder in propelling Bitcoin . Admittedly, the correlation isn’t perfect, but history proves it: the two are inseparable.