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$DXY has now entered the distribution phase. The FED has raised its inflation expectations, so expect a short-term rise, but it won't last long. As the FED will move towards ending QT and rate cuts, DXY will dump hard. After that, BTC and alts will skyrocket 🚀

$PEPE - Bullish area 📈 If prices keep consolidating above 0.0000720 - 0.0000730$ then we should see another bullish correction move toward 0.0000860 - 0.0000880$ 📈 Lower key supports: 0.0000705 - 0.0000635$

Bitcoin at a Critical Level: Will It Hold or Drop Further? Hello, traders! Today, I’m bringing you fresh Bitcoin analysis. Recently, $BTC made a slight upward move before falling to Support 2, aligning with the key support zone and breaking through Support 1 on the way down. After this, it attempted a recovery but failed, leading to further decline, breaking Support 2 and touching the trend line. Following this drop, Bitcoin reversed and began climbing, eventually reaching 80,100 and surpassing it. The price then surged close to Support 1 before correcting back to Support 2. From there, BTC made a strong impulse move toward Support 1 once again, consolidating around this level before retracing to the trend line. This acted as a springboard for another upward push. In a short span, Bitcoin broke above Support 1, reaching 87,500 before correcting back to the support zone. At this stage, I expect BTCUSDT to retest the support level, make a brief upward move, and then resume its decline, breaking below support. If this scenario unfolds, BTC could drop to 83,000, which aligns with the trend line. Let me know your thoughts in the comments, and if you enjoy my analysis, feel free to show your support!

The pause, while widely anticipated, came with a slightly revised outlook that includes a slower timeline for future rate cuts and a notable adjustment to the central bank’s balance sheet reduction pace. According to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, the Fed’s “Dot Plot” now indicates only two 25 basis-point rate cuts for this year—fewer than many market participants expected in December. Policymakers stressed that while interest rates remain in restrictive territory, the timing of actual cuts hinges on the path of economic indicators, particularly inflation and employment. However, the latest statement no longer asserts that inflation and employment are “in balance,” reflecting the Committee’s growing concern about economic uncertainty. But perhaps the most significant pivot was the Fed’s announcement that it will slow the reduction of its bond holdings, commonly known as “quantitative tightening” (QT). Beginning in April, the monthly runoff for government bonds will drop from $25 billion to $5 billion—a substantial downshift that many analysts consider a prelude to a more accommodative stance if economic or market conditions deteriorate. What This Means For Bitcoin Shortly after the Fed’s announcement, Bitcoin rallied roughly 4–5%, briefly surpassing the USD 86,000 level. Nik Bhatia—founder of The Bitcoin Layer and author of Bitcoin Age—took to his latest video update to dissect the decision’s implications. “Bitcoin up 4% on the news that the Fed slows QT and is still committed to cutting interest rates,” Bhatia said at the start of his analysis, noting that the market had been laser-focused on whether the central bank would modify its quantitative tightening approach. Bhatia explained how the reduction of the monthly runoff cap from $25 billion to $5 billion can loosen liquidity constraints in the overall system: “Now the Fed is also still contracting its balance sheet, but now it will do so by only five billion a month as opposed to 25 billion a month, and that is a material change,” he said. “This isn’t some, ‘Hey, we’re on the cusp of QE now just ‘cause we went from 25 to a five,’ but the first step is to get the balance sheet to stop shrinking … so that if the Fed needs to pivot, it can go quickly from 5 billion in QT a month to some modest expansion.” Bhatia underscored that such a move can fuel market risk appetite: “The market sees the Fed for what it is: it supports credit creation which expands balance sheets across the world, and that flow ends up in asset prices … some of those assets can be stocks, Bitcoin—[and] other financial assets.” Other experts are even more drastic in their assessment. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated via X: “JAYPOW delivered, QT basically over Apr 1. The next thing we need to get bulled up for realz is either SLR exemption and or a restart of QE. Was BTC $77k the bottom, prob. But stonks prob have more pain left to fully convert Jay to team Trump so stay nimble and cashed up.” Jamie Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst at Realvision, pretty much agrees: “After last night, QT is effectively dead (for some time). Treasury volatility has backed right off and is now mirroring the decline in DXY from earlier this month. This is all extremely liquidity-positive.” $BTC

$TRUMP is consolidating between support at $10.86 and resistance at $11.74. A breakout above resistance could drive the price toward $12.43. However, if it fails to break resistance and drops below support, expect a move toward $11.28, with further downside if the support breaks, indicating a potential continuation of the downtrend.