5 bullish reasons to buy the dip now

Original title: "Where are we in the current crypto cycle and where do we go from here?"
Original author: Tom Dunleavy
Translated by: Joyce, BlockBeats

Editor's note: The impact of the German and American governments' selling of coins and the Mentougou case on the market is coming to an end, and community sentiment has bottomed out. Where should the crypto market go next? There are many factors to consider in this process. The author of this article, Tom Dunleavy, remains optimistic about the future market and believes that the current crypto market is at a historical turning point. Bitcoin has great potential and market fluctuations are only temporary adjustments.

Different from the general simple bullish voice, Tom Dunleavy gave specific reasons for the bullish view from the aspects of technical indicators, macro liquidity and market structure, and made his own analysis of the potential new crisis in the crypto market. Readers who hold a bullish or bearish attitude can get some inspiration from the review of this article.

In this article, I will discuss:

Current market status: We are standing at a historical turning point, Bitcoin has great potential, and market fluctuations are temporary adjustments.

Outlook for the next 18 months: Increased global liquidity and the influx of institutional funds will continue to drive the market, and the prospects are promising.

Investment advice: It is crucial to choose promising fields and early projects, and invest with focus and caution.

In short, you are not optimistic enough.

After massive deleveraging, the market is about to start

First, let's review the current market situation. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the expectation that the United States would approve a Bitcoin ETF triggered a wave of enthusiasm, marking the beginning of this cycle. In the first half of 2024, the market attracted about $15 billion in new capital inflows. In particular, the launch of the Ethereum ETF on May 23 caused the price to soar by more than 30% at one point. Although there has been a pullback in recent weeks, this is just a normal fluctuation within the cycle and there is no need to worry too much.

At the same time, we also experienced a large-scale deleveraging event. At the end of the second quarter, nearly $1 billion in assets were liquidated over a weekend. Although this may seem a bit scary, it actually helps the market get rid of the burden of excessive leverage and make it healthier and more stable.

Key Indicator: MVRV

Let's take a look at a very important market indicator - MVRV, which is the ratio of market value to realized value. This ratio is an important reference for judging whether the market is overvalued or undervalued, and it is also the most reliable indicator for indicating BTC short selling or oversold conditions. Currently, BTC's MVRV ratio is 1.5, indicating that the market is relatively undervalued.

With a lot of leverage in the market being cleared, the current low MVRV value suggests that the market has the potential to rise further. Historical data shows that when the ratio exceeds 4, it is often a signal to sell; when it is below 1, it is a good time to buy. Therefore, from this perspective, Bitcoin still has a lot of room for growth in the future.

Positive stimulus from global liquidity

Global liquidity is an important driver of market cycles. As we all know, the stimulus policies of central banks and governments around the world have a profound impact on the market, especially the United States. As the world's largest economy, policy changes in the United States are crucial to the market. At present, the market expects that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice this year, and Citibank even predicts that it may cut interest rates eight times in the next 12 months. This will greatly increase the liquidity of the market, which is undoubtedly good news for the cryptocurrency market.

Crossbordercap, an institution focusing on liquidity, has called for an increase in liquidity growth rate to 20% in the second half of 2024. In addition, the Swedish and European Central Banks have also stated that they will begin to relax monetary policy. Such policy changes will inject more funds into the market and drive up the prices of risky assets.

The impact of the election cycle

The impact of the election cycle on the market cannot be ignored either. In every election year, government spending tends to increase, which is also a positive signal for the market. In particular, incumbent governments typically increase direct and indirect spending during election campaigns, which usually leads to strong market performance at the beginning of the year, a slight lull in the summer, and a rebound in the second half of the year. The 2024 election cycle is no exception, and the market is expected to perform well in the second half of the year.

Added Buying Power from FTX

We have an additional bullish catalyst with $12 billion to $14 billion in FTX compensation claims expected to flow into the market in October and November 2024. This will inject a lot of new money into the cryptocurrency market, further pushing up market prices. This is undoubtedly very good news for investors.

Halving "Tradition"

Speaking of this, we cannot ignore the lessons of the past. Historically, the cryptocurrency market tends to follow a four-year cycle centered on the Bitcoin halving. In the first year after the halving, the market rises rapidly; in the second year, the increase begins to slow; in the third year, the price remains roughly the same; in the fourth year, the price falls sharply. Prices usually peak around 500 days after the halving. If this cycle follows the same pattern, the market may peak around October 2025.

If we follow this "tradition", we are still in the early stages of the cycle, and the market is expected to be relatively quiet in July and August before the rapid rise in the next 12 months.

How to navigate this bull market without looking at the same old pattern?

While we believe the market will follow the previous cycles, there are some nuances in this cycle.

Market variables that cannot be ignored

The impact of institutional entry

In this cycle, we see some new factors. First, the influence of institutional products is growing. Since the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, the market has attracted more than $15 billion in inflows. Moreover, only about 25% of U.S. financial advisors can recommend these products to their clients, which means there is still a lot of room for growth in the future.

Gold ETFs have seen net inflows for five consecutive years since their approval, so we can expect Bitcoin ETFs to continue to attract inflows. This will help to dampen market volatility and extend the duration of the cycle.

More Tokens and a Larger Backlog of Issuances

Second, the number of tokens available for purchase has increased significantly. In 2021, there were about 400,000 tokens on the market, and now this number has exceeded 3 million, with 100,000 new tokens added every day. In addition, there are a large number of tokens unlocked from previous issuances, and in July alone, $350 million worth of tokens were unlocked. Such an increase in supply will undoubtedly have an impact on the market.

There are also a large number of private projects ready to go public on the market. These projects are expected to conduct token generation activities in the fall. More than 1,000 projects funded in 2023 and early 2024 have not yet issued tokens, and the total supply is expected to reach billions of dollars. The issuance of these new tokens may have a significant impact on the market.

Macroeconomic Conditions

U.S. macroeconomic conditions also have a significant impact on the market. Currently, the U.S. unemployment rate remains low, inflation continues to decline, unemployment claims are flat, and wage growth is stagnant. These factors provide the Fed with a reason to cut interest rates. We expect to see rate cuts in 2024 and 2025, which will reduce the cost of capital for companies, reduce debt interest rates for consumers, and provide more funds for risky assets.

VC Reserve Funds

In 2021 and 2022, multiple $1 billion+ cryptocurrency-focused funds were successfully raised. These funds typically have a 3-4 year timeline for capital deployment. Many funds were cautious in investing in late 2022 and early 2023 due to the impact of FTX. However, the recent market rally has caught many venture capital firms by surprise, resulting in a large amount of reserve funds sitting on the sidelines in this cycle. Many reserve funds are actively deployed in Q1 and Q2 2024.

Clearer Regulatory Environment

Finally, changes in the regulatory environment also have an important impact on the market. While the upcoming regulations may be controversial, clear rules can reduce market uncertainty. The EU's MiCA has already started, and the United States also has multiple bills on market structure, banking services, and stablecoins. If the Republicans win the presidency and the Senate, these bills will be introduced quickly in the first quarter of 2024.

How do you view this cycle?

Longer and Lower Volatility

Overall, we believe that this cycle is likely to be longer and less volatile than previous cycles. Large assets will lead the rally, and the large reserve funds of venture capital firms will support a range of new projects, but we still need new net buyers to support more assets. Although we have obtained many buyers through ETFs, these buyers are unlikely to be on-chain users who support the valuation of other tokens.

Large-cap assets lead the rally, and the "altcoin season" is over

We expect large-cap assets to lead the rally in this cycle, while long-tail assets will be more volatile. Many top assets may be included in institutional-grade products. Compared with past cycles, many small or emerging protocols will go to zero as competition for capital intensifies. In this cycle, there will be a huge divergence in the investment and performance of long-tail protocols.

Selection and Focus Are Crucial

Asset selection is more important than ever in this cycle. The old “cast a wide net to catch fish” approach no longer works. Due to increased supply, attention is almost as important as fundamentals (or even more important in some verticals). Investors should focus on verticals and protocols at the Seed and Series A stages.

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