Bank of America: The Fed doesn't need to cut rates to the scale of a recession right now

Bank of America Securities brokerage team stated in a report that the Fed's rate cut in September is already a foregone conclusion, but there is no need for aggressive rate cuts that could lead to a recession. The rise in July's unemployment rate was almost entirely due to temporary layoffs, indicating only temporary weakness. The employment rate in the August report may rebound and the unemployment rate may decline. They said, "Without layoffs, there would be no economic recession in the United States, and the layoff rate is still extremely low." Bank of America believes that the rate-cut cycle will begin in September, with a quarterly reduction of 25 basis points, until the terminal interest rate of 3.25%-3.5% is reached in mid-2026. "Aggressive rate cuts of 50 basis points or more are carried out in emergency situations, and action is taken during the interval between meetings, but we are not there yet."