Crypto Flips Bullish After Kamala Harris Time Cover, Democrats Leap Ahead On Polymarket

After the Kamala Harris Time cover debut on Tuesday, 13 August 2024, the prediction markets have spoken—Harris has left Trump in the dust.

Harris has flipped the odds on Polymarket, a popular crypto-based betting platform and as of this week,  where she holds a seven-point lead over Trump.

Less than a month ago, Trump’s odds were substantially higher, reaching as much as 72%. This shift came after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris.

( Polymarket )

Real Clear Polling’s average shows Harris with a mere 0.5 percentage point lead. However, some mainstream polls, such as those from Harvard and CNBC, still have Trump ahead by a few points.

If you’re a Trump fan you might be crying into your pillow. So how did this happen and does Trump have a path to victory in this current climate?

Kamala Harris On Time Cover, Despite Being The Most Unpopular VP In History

( TIME )

Thanks to the Harris campaign, she has gone from a failed presidential candidate , an unpopular Vice President, to “the most-likely president of the US if the elections were held today.”

While Trump fans call her support astroturfed – which certainly is true to a degree-  we are yet to see how things pan out in November. What’s possibly working for Democrats is that they are distancing Harris from Biden’s policies and administration.

( CBS )

Harris’s rise to the top of the Democratic ticket has been met with positive media coverage and endorsements from celebrities.

Meanwhile, Trump is watching as she gets Obama-level energy at her rallies. While Harris may not be Obama, it can be said that a large chunk of the rally energy is literally just hatred for Trump.

Kamala Harris Time Cover Vs. Trump-Elon Interview

While the Kamala Harris Time Cover stole the show for Democrats, many tuned into Trump’s return to X (formerly Twitter) to be interviewed by its new owner Elon Musk.

The interview featured some interesting points, but Trump repeated many of the stump speech throwaways he’s been repeating for six years overall.

Read more: Trump Elon Interview X: 5 Trends Talked About You Should Know

Here’s a quick recap:

• “The war had zero chance of starting if I were president,” Trump told Elon
•  Trump argued that his ‘strong’ relationship with Putin could have prevented the conflict, saying that he had even told Putin not to take action.
•  Trump warned about the threat from “nuclear warming,” which he said posed a greater danger than “global warming.”
•  Elon Musk may join Trump’s administration if he wins the election.

How Trump Can Still Win the Election

Despite the Harris Time Cover crowning her the new president (and they’ve been wrong before), this election is far from over.

Harris has many weaknesses and here’s how Trump could exploit those to win:

Weakness #1 – Limited public engagement.

She is avoiding unscripted interactions or events, which means they fear mistakes, negative press, gaffes, and bad posturing. The Trump campaign in contrast should make their policies visible and accessible. He needs to simplify his message as it’s become too diffuse to follow.

Weakness #2 – Highly controlled messaging and context.
They plan all appearances and statements for Harris.  Trump can counteract by doing as many debates as possible with her, and if he wins, he may swerve the vote back. If she wins, she wins the election.

Weakness #3 – Focusing on positive developments.
The maintenance of “the Kamala image” is more important than Harris herself, to herself and her campaign. She has few appearances because they must be scripted and positive (take a look at her appearance in Atlanta). We’d like to see how she handles a more contentious media or the debate.

Final Thoughts On Harris v/s Trump

Regardless, we don’t think Harris will be as hard on crypto and innovation as Biden was.

But certainly, Trump seems better for the economy. We’ll keep you updated on how things go in the coming months.

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Disclaimer: Crypto is a high-risk asset class. This article is provided for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. You could lose all of your capital.