What is the Reason for Today’s Decline in Bitcoin? Here is the Answer and the Latest Situation

Shigeru Ishiba's election as Japan's new Prime Minister on Monday sent volatility through financial markets, with Japanese stocks and risky assets including Bitcoin (BTC) taking a hit.

Analysts Say Bitcoin’s Fall Is Due to Increased Probability of Japan’s Interest Rate Hike

Shigeru Ishiba’s election as Japan’s new Prime Minister on Monday sent financial markets into turmoil, with Japanese stocks and risk assets including Bitcoin taking a hit. Bitcoin, which reached a high of $66,300 over the weekend, fell 4% to around $63,500 after the announcement.

The market reaction stems from Ishiba’s past support for hawkish monetary policies, including raising interest rates through the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and advocating for higher corporate taxes. This policy stance has fueled fears of another potential rate hike that could further depress the already volatile crypto market.

Earlier in July, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates for the second time this year, wiping out billions of dollars from the cryptocurrency market. Investors now worry that another hike led by Ishiba could have an even more significant impact.

But not everyone shares that concern. Steven Glass, an analyst at Pella Funds Management in Sydney, told CNBC’s Squawk Box that Ishiba’s election was unlikely to result in further rate hikes. “The BOJ is unlikely to raise policy rates,” Glass said, citing the fragility of Japan’s economy and the lack of inflation levels that would warrant such a move.

The election comes after a strong September for Bitcoin, which saw a 20% rally amid more favorable global financial conditions, while the Fed’s 0.5% rate cut and China’s monetary stimulus have supported riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.

Still, analysts warn that Japan’s economic policies, particularly those that are new, could have far-reaching consequences for the crypto market. BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes has previously highlighted the yen as the “most important macro variable” for cryptocurrencies, tech stocks and U.S. debt markets.

In May, Hayes argued that Japan’s weak yen could trigger a crypto rally, sending bitcoin to new highs. But the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike in July strengthened the yen, triggering a global sell-off in stocks and sending bitcoin below $50,000 for the first time since January.

*This is not investment advice.