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The US elections are the event of the moment, with just 2 weeks to go. Trump has started to extend his lead over Kamala in betting markets, and key swing states are now polling Republican. Markets are now pricing in a potential Trump presidency. Talks of increased tariffs and tax reductions are causing the USD to rally and US bond yields to head higher. Given Trump’s more crypto-friendly stance, it’s no surprise that BTC is trading higher as well.

The S&P 500 continues to push for all-time highs and US 2Y Treasuries yields have broken above 4% again. BTC has made a move towards 69k on the back of a record high in open interest across exchanges. Total futures open interest on exchanges now sit at $40.5 billion.

The market is now pricing 1.5 rate cuts in 2024. The stronger-than-expected labor market and increasing odds of a Trump presidency have brought back hope that growth in the US will remain strong.

All eyes are on the NFP release next Friday as uncertainty around the labor market persists. As the last NFP report before the next Fed meeting, it will play a critical role in shaping expectations for the Fed’s next move on interest rates.

Trade Idea

BTC and ETH remain well-supported with potential upside, ahead of the job data release and the elections. In this bullish yet volatile environment, we recommend a Principal Protected Sharkfin strategy to capture upside potential while offering protection against downside risk.

BTC PRINCIPAL PROTECTED SHARKFIN

• Maturity: 27DEC24
• Strike: 80,000
• Barrier: 90,000
• Max Payout: 64.26% p.a. if spot expires just below 90,000 BTCUSD

Spot Ref: 67,150