Short-term holders' MVRV indicator returns to key points: historical bull start signal reappears?

CryptoChan, an on-chain analyst, observed that the MVRV (market capitalization to realized value) indicator for short-term Bitcoin holders has climbed to a key area, highly similar to the performance before the bull market started at the end of 2020. This indicator has been verified multiple times in history as an important leading signal in the early stages of the bull market.

 

Indicator background and details

At the end of 2020, the MVRV of short-term holders broke through the 1.5 level, marking the beginning of significant profits for short-term holders. Subsequently, the price of Bitcoin rose violently within 3-4 months, reaching a new historical high.

Current performance: Short-term MVRV has once again approached the 1.5 level, indicating that the profitability of short-term holders in the market is increasing, sentiment is gradually turning optimistic, and the market has a certain foundation of capital liquidity.

 

Verification of historical laws

In the early stage of the bull market in 2017, after short-term holders MVRV entered the high range, BTC price broke through the oscillation range and rose several times in a row.

At the end of 2020, a similar breakthrough started, market sentiment was high, funds accelerated inflows, and the price of Bitcoin achieved a leap from $10,000 to $60,000.

 

Market current signals

MVRV hits a key point: After the indicator approaches 1.5, it indicates that the profit level of short-term holders in the market is gradually increasing, indicating the potential for the start of a new trend.

On-chain liquidity enhancement: Combined with the previous fund flow (CMF) indicator, market liquidity has rebounded, and Technical Fundamentals and on-chain data have begun to resonate.

Time cycle comparison: The current market performance is surprisingly consistent with the rhythm of the end of 2020, and BTC may enter the main upward trend in the coming months.