Analysis: The probability of the US-Canada trade war ending before May has jumped to 70% on Polymarket, and the cryptocurrency market may rebound due to this news

Polymarket data shows that there is a 70% chance the US-Canada trade war will end before May. The Trump administration imposed a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods on Tuesday, but Lutnick subsequently hinted at the possibility of negotiations, easing market sentiment and increasing related forecast probabilities by 20% in a short time.

Lutnick stated that Trump hopes to reach an agreement with Canada and Mexico, rather than simply suspending tariffs. Affected by this news, the cryptocurrency market rose, with Bitcoin breaking through $87,000.

Earlier news reported that U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick said on Tuesday that the Trump administration could announce as early as tomorrow ways to reduce tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada.

In an interview with Fox News, Lutnick said: "Mexican and Canadian officials have been calling me all day today trying to show they can do better while the president is listening so I think he will reach some agreements with them. It won't be something like suspending tariffs but I believe Trump will compromise with them in some aspects and we are likely to announce it tomorrow." Lutnick indicated that tariffs might be set at "some middle level", Trump would make some concessions to Canada and Mexico but would not completely give in.