Standard Chartered Bank: The US recession theory is exaggerated, it is expected that there will be two more rate cuts this year

PANews reported on March 11th, according to Jinshi, that Standard Chartered Bank's G10 foreign exchange research and global head of North American macro strategy, Steven Englander, stated that despite economic slowdowns, market concerns about a US recession may be overly amplified. Despite ongoing worries about high interest rates and government spending issues, he believes the economic data does not fully support the most pessimistic scenarios. Englander pointed out that falling energy prices and improved weather conditions in the coming months could boost consumer spending and thus support economic growth. He predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year, implemented in the second and third quarters respectively. However, due to continued fiscal policy supporting government expenditure, further rate cuts are less likely. In contrast, given stable inflation and wage growth, The Bank of Japan might raise interest rates twice which would make yen perform better than other major currencies.

The recent wave of increased tariffs by the United States could push up inflation but its impact is controllable. Englander believes that although tariffs may lead to price increases their overall impact will still be within manageable limits. He also forecasts that U.S government will use fiscal policies to support economic growth which might strengthen dollar in second half of this year.