Dollar’s Decline and Yield Crash: QCP Reveals Hidden Lifeline for Battered Risk Assets

QCP Capital reported that U.S. stock markets extended declines following former President Donald Trump’s recent remarks, with the SP 500 and Nasdaq dropping 2.7% and 3.8%, respectively, marking the largest single-day loss for the “Magnificent 7” tech stocks at over $830 billion.

According to QCP, bearish sentiment at the start of the week surged as U.S. equities put option volumes hit their highest since 2020, driven by Trump’s Fox News interview where he downplayed recession risks, calling a potential downturn a necessary corrective measure.

BTC/USD via Bitstamp 1H chart on March 11, 2025.

QCP noted bitcoin’s role as a “pressure valve” for risk assets, with BTC briefly falling below $80,000 as investors sought put protection. However, early Asian trading revealed unexpected demand for longer-tenor call options, suggesting traders may be positioning for a rebound from the $75,000 support level seen pre-election.

The firm emphasized bitcoin’s continued correlation with broader risk asset trends. Despite the equity rout, QCP observed that 10-year Treasury yields fell roughly 60 basis points, while the U.S. dollar weakened—a historically positive combination for USD-denominated risk assets like equities and crypto.

Lower yields also eased borrowing costs for the U.S. government, which faces significant refinancing needs. QCP stressed concerns around Trump’s proposed tax cuts and expansionary fiscal policies, which could strain deficit projections. However, the firm noted that current yield levels provide temporary fiscal relief, creating a complex backdrop for investors navigating policy risks and market volatility.

QCP Capital’s analysis paints a nuanced picture: While immediate risk-off moves dominate, shifting macroeconomic conditions and policy developments may recalibrate market trajectories in the coming weeks.

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