Solana rally at risk as bearish shooting star appears on daily chart

• Solana’s 40% rally from $95.23 faces a threat from a shooting star candlestick.
• Technicals show bullish MACD but fragile momentum with $125–$128 support key.
• Macro pressures and competition challenge SOL’s ability to sustain the $147.60 push.

The Solana price has climbed 40% from a 1-year low of $95.26 registered on Binance last week, reaching $131.32 on April 15, 2025.

This price surge, much of it happening in the past week, has ignited the possibility of Solana (SOL) recovering from its three-month downtrend.

What is behind the current Solana price surge?

One of the key factors fueling the current Solana price is the highly anticipated launch of Canada’s first spot Solana ETFs with staking capabilities.

Canada is readying spot Solana ETFs to launch this week after regulator gave green light to multiple issuers incl Purpose, Evolve, CI and 3iQ. ETFs will include staking via TD pic.twitter.com/FSw149Xkm4

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) April 14, 2025

These ETFs, approved by the Ontario Securities Commission, will allow investors to earn rewards through staking, boosting SOL’s demand.

In addition, the resilient NFT activity on Solana and Web3 integrations also supports the upward trajectory.

Last but not least, there is the Venture capital backing for Solana-based projects, which underscores Solana’s long-term appeal despite market volatility.

Solana price technical analysis

Following the current price surge, Solana has broken out of a three-month falling wedge.

However, a shooting star candlestick formed on the daily chart yesterday, signaling potential trouble for this rally.

This bearish pattern, appearing after SOL hit $134.19, suggests rejection and a possible pullback.

The 50-day EMA at $136 now acts as the short-term dynamic resistance, which if crossed could set the stage for a major bull run.

Meanwhile, the 20-day EMA at $124.28 provides support, keeping the long-term trend bullish.

The RSI, at 54.12, reflects mild bullishness but lacks strong momentum to confirm a breakout.

Solana price prediction

Solana’s ability to sustain its bullish momentum faces significant hurdles.

Macro pressures, including geopolitical risks and US Federal Reserve policy speculation, weigh on risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

Also, competition from newer layer-1 blockchains, such as Sui and Aptos, challenges Solana’s market share.

In addition, past network congestion issues, though less frequent, still linger in investor minds.

And although the SOL/ETH price ratio recently surged to 8.1% highlighting Solana’s relative strength, Ethereum’s underperformance may not persist for long.

The technical indicators present a mixed outlook for Solana’s near-term path.

A bullish MACD crossover, with the blue line surpassing the orange signal line, hints at rising buyer strength, with growing green histogram bars reinforcing this short-term buying pressure.

However, the shooting star’s appearance near the $134.19 resistance raises concerns about exhaustion.

A break below the immediate support at $125–$128, which has been tested multiple times recently, could push SOL toward the psychological $100 level, a 50% retracement from its 2023 rally.

However, if buyers defend $125 and macro sentiment improves, a push toward $147.60 resistance is possible.

But without a decisive bullish catalyst, consolidation between $125 and $145 seems likely.