Bitcoin could hit $138,000 in three months as macro conditions shift

Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO:BTC) price may rise to as high as $138,000 within the next three months, according to network economist Timothy Peterson, despite current macroeconomic challenges.

Peterson’s analysis focuses on the US High Yield Index Effective Yield, which recently surpassed 8%.

Historical data since 2010 shows that in similar conditions, Bitcoin rose 71% of the time three months later, with a median gain of 31% and a worst-case loss of 16%.

“This likely puts Bitcoin between $75k and $138k within 90 days,” Peterson stated, implying a potential 62% gain to reach the upper target.

The economist also highlighted an unprecedented correlation between Bitcoin and the US dollar index (DXY) in 2024, a relationship that historically has been inverse.

He explained that both assets are currently influenced by shared macro stressors such as tightening liquidity, high real interest rates, and global risk aversion.

“This level of BTC-USD correlation is unprecedented. The relationship is not causal, but reflective of underlying conditions affecting both,” Peterson said.

He expects this correlation to reverse as real yields drop and liquidity returns, allowing Bitcoin to decouple from the dollar and resume a stronger upward trend.

Data from April 18 shows the DXY remains below the key 100 level, near its lowest in three years, which could support Bitcoin’s price upside.

Peterson’s forecast aligns with his previous work, including his “Lowest Price Forward” metric, which has predicted Bitcoin price floors with high confidence, such as a 95% probability that Bitcoin would not fall below $69,000 earlier this year.

While macroeconomic headwinds persist, Peterson’s research suggests that Bitcoin’s price action may follow historical patterns favoring gains during periods of high yield rates and shifting liquidity conditions.

At the time of reporting, the Bitcoin (BTC) price was $87,302.50.