
Wtf even is this, and why does it make @JoshMandell6's $444,000 Bitcoin prediction look less crazy?
It's been widely observed that Bitcoin's price growth over the last 15 years follows a power curve--something like y=ax^b--which differs from other common functions, such as linear (y=ax) or exponential (y=ab^x). When the relationship between variables is fundamental (e.g., gravitational force F=Gm₁m₂/r²), we often call it a "power law." I'll leave it up to you to decide if this long-term trend qualifies as a "law," but regardless, I find value in the fit due to its longevity.
Long-term fits in U.S. dollars are skewed by the changing value of the dollar—see "inflation." One way to adjust for this is to measure an asset’s value relative to an inflation-resistant asset, like the price of an ounce of gold. The idea is that gold’s price should rise to offset the dollar’s decreasing value.
Here, I’m measuring the value of the Bitcoin network (market cap) in gold ounces and fitting that value to a power curve. On a log-log plot, a power curve appears as a straight line—see the top left subplot.
My preference is to fit the lower values using a 0.05 quantile regression and treat that as a "support" trendline.
The white line (upper left plot) is the power curve fit of Bitcoin’s market cap in gold ounces. Today’s fit value is 557,039,533 gold ounces.
Since we typically value assets in U.S. dollars, it’s convenient to convert that figure. Knowing the current Bitcoin supply and the current price of gold, we can translate those 557M ounces into dollars:
557,039,533 (gold ounces) × $3,040 (dollar value of an ounce of gold) ÷ 19,839,907 (Bitcoin supply) = $85,353 (BTC-USD fit value).
If you repeat this process for all past days, you get the squiggly white support line in the subplot on the right. It’s not smooth because gold’s price isn’t smooth.
The blue band represents a time shift of the white support line. Simply slide the white support line left by five years. Each white line in the blue band represents a one-year shift.
Doing this, we see that the peak at the end of 2017 (~$20,000) touches the "five years ahead" line. Five years later (end of 2022), the white support line equals ~$20,000.
Not every peak reaches five years ahead, but we did once, so maybe we could again.
So, what’s the connection to Josh? Coincidentally—if you believe in such things—Josh predicted Bitcoin would hit $84,000 a few days ago (which it did) and followed up with a price prediction of $444,000. That sounds crazy, and it is, but it’s also surprisingly close to the "five years ahead" value shown here ($462,557).
Since this fit is relative to gold’s price, gold’s rise from $2,000 (2023) to $3,000 (2025) is pushing the values in the right subplot higher. If Bitcoin’s network value measured in gold continues to follow a power curve, and gold holds its current value, and Bitcoin’s price returns to "five years ahead of support," we could hit Josh’s $444K this year.
That’s a lot of "ifs," but it’s fun, and I want to believe.
ONDO/USDT: The Calm Before the Storm! Will It Blast Through $1?
ONDO/USDT: 🚨Accumulation Almost Over? Big Move Coming!🚀
ONDO Bulls Are Waking Up – Next Stop, The Moon? 💎 ONDO is Still Cheap – But For How Long?
ONDO/USDT is stuck in an accumulation phase, trading around $0.83, moving sideways with no clear trend for now. But don’t let this fool you – this kind of price action often leads to strong breakouts when volume kicks in! 🔥
—💥What’s the key level to watch? The main resistance sits at $0.93 (FVG 1H). If we get enough buying pressure and price closes above this zone, it could skyrocket toward $1+ in no time. But if ONDO fails to break through, we might see more chop in this range.
—📈RSI & Volume Insights: Right now, the RSI indicator is recovering from a low, which means buyers are slowly stepping in. However, the chart still has multiple bearish rejections in past attempts, so a strong push is needed. The 200 MA (blue line) is also above the price, which means bulls still got work to do.
—🚨Remember: 🚨
—ONDO is at a make-or-break level. If volume surges and we get that breakout above $0.93, this thing could fly 🚀. But if resistance holds, we might see more sideways movement. Keep an eye on it!
$ONDO
#ONDO #CryptoTrading #Altcoins #BuyTheDip #CryptoMarket #CryptoNews
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Can This Intricate XRP Chart Predict a Massive Breakout? Analyst Weighs In
Crypto analyst EGRAGCrypto has released their latest “XRP Bermuda Triangle” chart, presenting a detailed technical analysis that combines Fibonacci arcs and symbolic zones to project XRP’s future price movements.
The chart tracks XRP’s progression through seven significant Fibonacci arcs. As of January 2025, XRP has moved past the first four arcs , indicating a change in market momentum. Price is now navigating between arcs five and seven, with each arc potentially acting as a resistance or acceleration area. The month of March is crucial when these arcs converge, suggesting increased volatility.
Related: XRP’s Counter-Narrative: Challenging Bitcoin’s Institutional Dominance Towards $200K
The Bermuda Triangle structure incorporates symbolic zones that reflect the psychology of XRP traders and overall market sentiment.
Related: Crypto Author Challenges CoinMarketCap’s XRP Supply Calculation, Calls for Fairer Accounting
After reclaiming the Equilibrium zone near $1.12 and breaking above the long-term Atlas Line, XRP pushed through the Final Wake-Up Line—a downtrend that lasted for several years. Incidentally, this breakout led to a volatile period known as the Red Lake, historically marked by strong price rejections.
Having moved out of the Red Lake, XRP is now in what EGRAG calls the Blue Ocean—a wider range with less immediate resistance.
Key Fibonacci levels within this zone include $1.97, $2.77, $9.71, and $18.01. These levels are combined with forecasts from Elliott Wave theory, which suggests Wave 3 could reach as high as $13 or $21. Assuming historical patterns and Fibonacci extensions hold, Wave 5 could potentially drive the price toward $27 or even higher.
Related: XRP’s Counter-Narrative: Challenging Bitcoin’s Institutional Dominance Towards $200K
With a confluence of technical indicators and symbolic zones the Bermuda Triangle chart aims to serve as more than just a visual representation—it’s presented as a strategic roadmap for those looking at XRP’s long-term potential.
Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is for informational and educational purposes only. The article does not constitute financial advice or advice of any kind. Coin Edition is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of the utilization of content, products, or services mentioned. Readers are advised to exercise caution before taking any action related to the company.