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CryptoQuant: ETH accumulation addresses continue to increase holdings despite unrealized losses, with holdings increasing by more than 22% in two months According to the following content, CryptoQuant analysts said that since Ethereum reached a cycle high of $4,107 on December 16, 2024, its price has experienced a continuous correction. But in this bear market phase, ETH accumulation addresses are still increasing their positions. ETH accumulation addresses refer to those addresses that continue to receive ETH without selling a large amount, and whose balances remain stable or increase over time, whether they belong to large or small holders. These addresses are usually long-term holders who hold Ethereum for more than 155 days. On-chain data shows that these accumulation addresses entered the unrealized loss area on March 10, when Ethereum fell to $1,866.7, while their average holding price remained at $2,026. Despite this, ETH accumulation addresses are still increasing their ETH holdings in the case of unrealized losses: 15.5356 million ETH were held on March 10, and by May 3, it had increased to 19.0378 million ETH, an increase of 22.54%. This shows that ETH investors have shown strong confidence in Ethereum assets, projects, and ecosystems in the long term. (CryptoQuant)

Bitcoin continues to trade just below the $96K resistance, consolidating after its sharp rally in late April. The price is currently hovering in a narrow range while the market digests recent gains. Momentum has slightly cooled off, but no major bearish reversal signs have emerged yet. BTC remains in an overall bullish structure on the daily timeframe, holding above the $91K support and both the 100 and 200-day moving averages. After breaking through the $90K–$91K range, the asset is now testing the $95K resistance zone, which also aligns with the neckline of the previous consolidation. Moreover, the 100-day and 200-day moving averages have printed a bearish crossover near the $90K level, which is the only major worrying sign. Yet, as long as Bitcoin holds above both of them, the medium-term bullish trend remains intact. On the 4-hour chart, BTC has recently been trapped inside an ascending channel pattern, which typically signals a local top or slowdown in bullish momentum, especially if broken to the downside. The asset is currently testing the lower boundary of the pattern around the $94K–$94.5K area, now acting as support. If this level fails to hold, the next demand zone lies around the $92K mark. On the flip side, reclaiming $96K would likely ignite another leg higher, targeting $98K and even $100K. SOPR (EMA 30) On-chain metrics suggest the bullish bias remains supported by healthy profit-taking dynamics and limited sell-side pressure. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) remains above the 1.0 threshold, indicating that coins moving on-chain are doing so in profit. Importantly, SOPR recently rebounded with the price, suggesting that even after the rally, holders are not rushing to exit positions at a loss. This reflects strong conviction in the market and typically supports trend continuation rather than immediate correction.

#CHILLHOUSE trying to break out. Looks worrisome. A failure could lead back down to 1mill ish area.

Bitcoin’s powerful rally over the last few weeks has driven the price back near the $95,000 mark, but recent chart signals are pointing to possible turbulence ahead. The current structure, as seen on both the daily and hourly timeframes, reveals that BTC price might be preparing for a healthy pullback or even a sharper correction if critical support levels fail. Let's dive deep into what the charts are actually saying. On the daily Heikin Ashi chart, Bitcoin price has printed its first red candle after several consecutive green sessions—indicating a potential short-term top forming around $95,000. This zone, previously marked by rejection back in March, is proving to be a persistent barrier. The MA Ribbon, which includes the 20, 50, 100, and 200 SMAs, presents a crucial resistance confluence between $91,500 and $94,000. The price is now trading just slightly above the 200-day SMA ($90,309), which historically acts as a make-or-break zone for trend continuation. What makes this setup delicate is the flat structure of the 50-day and 100-day SMAs. These moving averages are not sloping steeply upward yet, indicating that although the momentum has returned, the medium-term trend hasn’t fully shifted into bullish territory. The daily Accumulation/Distribution Line (ADL) remains elevated, suggesting that smart money hasn’t aggressively exited yet—but any signs of further weakness could trigger significant profit-taking. The hourly chart gives us a more granular view of short-term weakness. After failing to break above $96,000, Bitcoin retraced sharply and is currently hovering near $94,400. The price has slipped below the 20- and 50-SMA lines, with the 100- and 200-SMAs now acting as overhead resistance around $95,000–$96,000. This crossover from support to resistance could be a red flag that momentum is waning. The Bitcoin price structure is also forming a potential descending triangle pattern, which often precedes bearish breakdowns. Moreover, the recent recovery candles lack conviction, suggesting that bulls may be running out of steam. ADL on the hourly chart is starting to flatten after rising steadily throughout the previous rally. This could indicate a pause in accumulation, and possibly the start of mild distribution. The first major support to watch is the 200-day SMA on the daily chart at $90,309. If Bitcoin closes a daily candle below this level, it could trigger further sell pressure and shake weak hands. Below $90K, the $86,000–$88,000 region becomes the next critical area, which aligns with the 50-day SMA. Should this zone fail, a steeper drop toward $78,000 becomes increasingly likely. The worst-case scenario would be a revisit of $70,000, which served as a macro support zone during previous consolidation phases. While this drop would represent a ~25% correction from recent highs, such pullbacks are not unusual in Bitcoin’s historical bull market cycles. Bitcoin price is still in an overall bullish structure , but the short-term signals are flashing yellow. Consolidation below $95,000, weakening hourly momentum, and resistance from key moving averages suggest the path of least resistance could be lower in the coming days. A breakdown below $90,000 could accelerate downside momentum, potentially dragging the price into the low $80,000s or even the $70,000 region in a high-volatility scenario. However, unless we see massive volume accompanying this move, such a pullback could represent a much-needed reset before the next leg up. Long-term trend supporters would likely view any dip toward $78K–$70K as a strategic buying opportunity. BTC price action over the next few days will be pivotal in determining whether this is just a pause or the start of a broader correction. Bitcoin’s powerful rally over the last few weeks has driven the price back near the $95,000 mark, but recent chart signals are pointing to possible turbulence ahead. The current structure, as seen on both the daily and hourly timeframes, reveals that BTC price might be preparing for a healthy pullback or even a sharper correction if critical support levels fail. Let's dive deep into what the charts are actually saying. On the daily Heikin Ashi chart, Bitcoin price has printed its first red candle after several consecutive green sessions—indicating a potential short-term top forming around $95,000. This zone, previously marked by rejection back in March, is proving to be a persistent barrier. The MA Ribbon, which includes the 20, 50, 100, and 200 SMAs, presents a crucial resistance confluence between $91,500 and $94,000. The price is now trading just slightly above the 200-day SMA ($90,309), which historically acts as a make-or-break zone for trend continuation. What makes this setup delicate is the flat structure of the 50-day and 100-day SMAs. These moving averages are not sloping steeply upward yet, indicating that although the momentum has returned, the medium-term trend hasn’t fully shifted into bullish territory. The daily Accumulation/Distribution Line (ADL) remains elevated, suggesting that smart money hasn’t aggressively exited yet—but any signs of further weakness could trigger significant profit-taking. The hourly chart gives us a more granular view of short-term weakness. After failing to break above $96,000, Bitcoin retraced sharply and is currently hovering near $94,400. The price has slipped below the 20- and 50-SMA lines, with the 100- and 200-SMAs now acting as overhead resistance around $95,000–$96,000. This crossover from support to resistance could be a red flag that momentum is waning. The Bitcoin price structure is also forming a potential descending triangle pattern, which often precedes bearish breakdowns. Moreover, the recent recovery candles lack conviction, suggesting that bulls may be running out of steam. ADL on the hourly chart is starting to flatten after rising steadily throughout the previous rally. This could indicate a pause in accumulation, and possibly the start of mild distribution. The first major support to watch is the 200-day SMA on the daily chart at $90,309. If Bitcoin closes a daily candle below this level, it could trigger further sell pressure and shake weak hands. Below $90K, the $86,000–$88,000 region becomes the next critical area, which aligns with the 50-day SMA. Should this zone fail, a steeper drop toward $78,000 becomes increasingly likely. The worst-case scenario would be a revisit of $70,000, which served as a macro support zone during previous consolidation phases. While this drop would represent a ~25% correction from recent highs, such pullbacks are not unusual in Bitcoin’s historical bull market cycles. Bitcoin price is still in an overall bullish structure , but the short-term signals are flashing yellow. Consolidation below $95,000, weakening hourly momentum, and resistance from key moving averages suggest the path of least resistance could be lower in the coming days. A breakdown below $90,000 could accelerate downside momentum, potentially dragging the price into the low $80,000s or even the $70,000 region in a high-volatility scenario. However, unless we see massive volume accompanying this move, such a pullback could represent a much-needed reset before the next leg up. Long-term trend supporters would likely view any dip toward $78K–$70K as a strategic buying opportunity. BTC price action over the next few days will be pivotal in determining whether this is just a pause or the start of a broader correction.

#BTC support range My main area of support on the HTF we need to hold to keep this uptrend structure intact is 88.5 - 92k. I know this is a broad range but I want to continue operating on the higher timeframe here so that we don't lose perspective of the bigger picture.