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The latest U.S. Core PCE Index has met expectations, and traders are reassessing their next moves. The key question is whether Bitcoin (BTC) will continue to mirror traditional equities like the S&P 500 or decouple and establish independent momentum. Core PCE Impact on Traditional Markets Meeting expectations suggests inflation is stabilizing, reducing uncertainty for investors. Equity markets typically react positively to inflation data that aligns with expectations. Bitcoin's Correlation With Stocks Historically, Bitcoin has moved in tandem with equities, but recent trends indicate a possible decoupling phase. Growing institutional adoption has created a unique supply-and-demand dynamic, reducing Bitcoin's reliance on broader financial market movements. Possible Scenarios for Crypto 1. *BTC Follows Equities*: Bitcoin may follow the S&P 500 rally, continuing its historical correlation. 2. *Bitcoin Decouples & Leads the Rally*: Bitcoin shows independent strength, fueled by ETF inflows and halving hype, outperforming equities. 3. *Macro Uncertainty Limits Crypto Gains*: Investors remain cautious, and both stocks and crypto trade sideways until more clarity emerges. Trading Strategies 1. *Spot Accumulation*: Gradual accumulation in key altcoins (ETH, SOL, BNB) if BTC maintains strength. 2. *Leverage Trading*: Watch for volatility spikes post-PCE for short-term scalping opportunities. 3. *Hedging With Stablecoins*: Keeping a portion of holdings in USDT or USDC to mitigate downside risks. The article concludes that while Bitcoin has historically tracked the S&P 500, evolving market conditions could push it into a decoupling phase. Traders should stay alert to shifts in market sentiment, liquidity inflows, and macroeconomic cues.

The big question on everyone's mind: will Bitcoin stick to its S&P 500 correlation or diverge amidst the latest inflation data? Historically, Bitcoin has shown a significant correlation with the S&P 500, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic ¹. However, this correlation might be moment-dependent and vary across time and frequency ². Recent studies suggest that the co-movement between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 intensifies around mid-term scales, especially during periods of high economic uncertainty ². The Core PCE data, a key indicator of inflation, might influence this correlation. If the data indicates low inflation, it could boost stocks and potentially align with a surge in Bitcoin, as seen in the past ¹. However, it's essential to consider that Bitcoin's market dynamics are unique and can be influenced by various factors, such as economic policy uncertainty, technological innovations, and investor sentiment ². Therefore, it's possible that Bitcoin might diverge from its traditional correlation with the S&P 500. To stay ahead of the curve, keep a close eye on the market's response to the Core PCE data and be prepared for potential shifts in Bitcoin's correlation with traditional markets.

Bitcoin’s second-worst February on record is set to extend into a new week, with price burdened by “aggravating macro factors” and a technical correction. Bitcoin ( BTC ) was down 25% from its Jan. 20 all-time high of $108,786 as forward-facing inflation indicators incentivized a risk-off mood among investors, and spot exchange-traded funds logged continuous outflows on Wall Street. Although U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index data matched analyst expectations—dropping to 2.6% from 2.9% year over year—BTC only recorded a modest uptick, climbing to $81,800. Previously, the most valuable cryptocurrency by market cap fell as low as $78,400, losing over 6% in 24 hours and hitting a three-month low. “It’s the first tangible correction since reaching its all-time high less than six weeks ago”, analysts at B2BINPAY told crypto.news via email. “The correction has mostly been technical, amplified by aggravating factors,” the analysts added, referring to Trump’s tariffs and sovereign trade wars. Consensus among BTC observers warned of more volatility ahead. B2BINPAY’s team echoed the sentiment, citing support and resistance bands from BTC technical analysis. Speaking from the technical standpoint, if we approach the 3M SMA support at $71,880 and wouldn’t bounce back toward 80K’s, the outlook would become less favorable, as there is a possibility of further decline. B2BINPAY analysts Standard Chartered shared a similar outlook, predicting that BTC may retest $69,000 by early March. IntoTheBlock data showed massive accumulation between $60,000 and $72,000, potentially forming a defense from larger declines. Over six million addresses acquired 2.64 million BTC in that range.

The latest U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—has met expectations. With inflation data aligning with forecasts, traders across all financial markets are assessing their next moves. A key question now is whether Bitcoin (BTC) will continue mirroring traditional equities like the S&P 500 or if it will decouple and establish independent momentum. 🎯 Core PCE & Its Impact on Traditional Markets Core PCE meeting expectations suggests inflation is stabilizing, reducing uncertainty for investors. Equity markets (S&P 500, Nasdaq) typically react positively to inflation data that aligns with expectations, as it signals no immediate need for aggressive Fed rate hikes. A risk-on environment could develop if investors feel confident that rate cuts are still on the table for later in the year. 🎯Bitcoin’s Correlation With Stocks: A Decoupling Trend? Historically, Bitcoin has moved in tandem with equities, particularly during major macroeconomic events. However, recent trends indicate a possible decoupling phase: Bitcoin’s growing institutional adoption has created a unique supply-and-demand dynamic, reducing its reliance on broader financial market movements. Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have led to BTC price surges, even when stocks remained flat or showed weakness. The Bitcoin halving event (April 2024) may drive speculative interest independent of macroeconomic data. 🎯What’s Next for Crypto? Possible Scenarios Scenario 1: BTC Follows Equities If the S&P 500 rallies after the PCE data, Bitcoin may follow, continuing its historical correlation with traditional risk assets. This scenario suggests short-term upside for Bitcoin and major altcoins like Ethereum. Scenario 2: Bitcoin Decouples & Leads the Rally If Bitcoin shows independent strength—fueled by ETF inflows and upcoming halving hype—it could outperform equities, marking a true decoupling moment. Altcoins, especially those linked to Bitcoin’s movement (Layer 2s, BTC ecosystem tokens), could see stronger gains. Scenario 3: Macro Uncertainty Limits Crypto Gains If investors remain cautious about rate cuts and macroeconomic risks, both stocks and crypto could trade sideways until more clarity emerges. Altcoin sentiment may weaken, with traders prioritizing BTC and ETH over riskier assets. 🎯Trading Strategies for Bitget Users Spot Accumulation: If BTC maintains strength, gradual accumulation in key altcoins (ETH, SOL, BNB) may be a solid strategy. Leverage Trading: Watch for volatility spikes post-PCE; short-term scalping opportunities could emerge on BTC/USDT and ETH/USDT pairs. Hedging With Stablecoins: If uncertainty remains, keeping a portion of holdings in USDT or USDC could mitigate downside risks. 🔴Final Thoughts While Bitcoin has historically tracked the S&P 500, evolving market conditions—such as ETF-driven demand and the halving cycle—could push it into a decoupling phase. Whether BTC follows equities or carves its own path, traders should stay alert to shifts in market sentiment, liquidity inflows, and macroeconomic cues.

📉 Bitcoin & Ethereum React to U.S. Inflation Data – What’s Next? The latest U.S. Core PCE Price Index for January 2025 showed a 2.6% year-over-year increase, aligning with market expectations and easing slightly from 2.9% in December. As the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, this report plays a key role in shaping monetary policy and investor sentiment. 🔻 Crypto Market Volatility Following the PCE release, Bitcoin ($BTC) initially dropped over 6%, hitting a low of $81,000, before recovering to $84,443. Similarly, Ethereum ($ETH) declined by 3.5%, trading around $2,228.36. Market Outlook While the data hints at a slowing inflation rate, broader concerns such as trade tensions and market sell-offs continue to weigh on risk assets. Over $1 trillion in crypto value has been erased since December, fueled by macroeconomic uncertainty. 📊 What’s Next? If inflation remains under control, the Federal Reserve may hold interest rates steady, providing potential relief for crypto markets. However, geopolitical and economic uncertainties could drive further volatility. Investors should stay cautious and monitor key macro trends closely.