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According to the CME ‘Fed Watch’: the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in March is 97.5%, and the probability of cutting rates by 25 basis points is 2.5%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged in May is 88.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 10.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 0.2%.

According to Bloomberg, 86 per cent of crypto traders lost money after investing in LIBRA, a platform run by Argentine President Javier Milei, for a cumulative loss of $251 million, while insiders made a profit of $180 million, according to Nansen data. Nansen researcher Nicolai Sondergaard noted that the agency analysed more than 15,000 crypto wallets and found ‘very clear on-chain evidence of a group of “insiders” unilaterally profiting from retail investors. ’

According to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, who revealed the data on the X platform, whales have bought around 430,000 ETH in the last 72 hours.

On 19 February, according to Coinmarketcap, the top 100 cryptocurrency tokens by market cap performed as follows.

Top five gainers:
- Sonic (S) up 22.64 per cent, now at $0.7176
- Aptos (APT) up 17.31% at $6.45
- Berachain (BERA) up 12.50 per cent to $6.56
- Bittensor (TAO) up 11.12 per cent at $410.60
- Litecoin (LTC) up 9.40 per cent at $137.22

Top five losers:
- FTX Token (FTT) down 11.13 per cent to $1.98
- Mantle (MNT) down 6.99 per cent to $1.04
- Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) has fallen 6.84 per cent to $0.9899
- Pyth Network (PYTH) has fallen 5.99 per cent to $0.2048
- PancakeSwap (CAKE) has fallen 5.91 per cent to $2.39

Bitcoin payment rewards provider Fold Holdings (ticker: FLD) went public on the Nasdaq on 19 February through a merger with special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC) FTAC Emerald Acquisition Corp, CoinDesk reports. On the first day of trading, FLD shares rose more than 30% to $13 before falling back to around $11.

According to public filings, Fold currently holds 1,000 bitcoins, worth about $96 million at current prices, making it the latest publicly traded company to hold bitcoin on its balance sheet, following MicroStrategy, Semler Scientific and Metaplanet.

Respondents to the Fed survey believed that the tapering process would end by mid-2025, slightly later than previously expected, and the Fed staff's economic outlook remained largely unchanged from that provided at the December meeting. In preliminary discussions of the framework review, policymakers expressed openness to modifying the elements introduced in the 2020 paper. In addition, Fed officials argued that uncertainty has increased and that there is a need for ‘caution’ in terms of rate cuts. (GOLDEN TEN)

Odaily Planet - Trump's initial policy proposals have raised concerns about rising inflation at the Federal Reserve, Fed policymakers said at a meeting held about a week after Trump's inauguration on 20 January. Participants ‘generally pointed to upside risks to the inflation outlook’ rather than risks to the job market, according to published minutes of the meeting. ‘In particular, participants cited potential changes in trade and immigration policies, the possibility of geopolitical developments disrupting supply chains, or the possible impact of stronger-than-expected household spending.’ The minutes said that while participants remained confident that price pressures would continue to ease, ‘other factors were cited as having the potential to impede the counter-inflationary process,’ including the fact that ‘some (Federal Reserve) regional business contacts indicated that firms would attempt to pass on the higher input costs from potential tariffs to the consumers.’ Participants also noted that some measures of inflation expectations, a key concern for the Fed, ‘have risen recently.’ (GOLDEN TEN)

Odaily Planet - Minutes from the Federal Reserve's January meeting show that officials discussed whether to slow or pause the drawdown of its nearly $6.8 trillion asset portfolio at last month's meeting, as they face the complexities of raising the federal debt ceiling in the coming months, according to ‘Fed megaphone’ Nick Timiraos. Complications. Developments related to the debt ceiling could lead to significant volatility in the Fed's liabilities. The tapering process will eventually deplete the banking system's reserves, and Fed officials are unsure how long this process will last. Currency market volatility triggered by how the Treasury will manage its cash balance could complicate the Fed's ability to determine the correct reserve balance. As a result, officials concluded at their January meeting that ‘it might be appropriate to consider a pause or slowdown in balance sheet reduction until the debt ceiling issue is resolved,’ according to minutes released Wednesday.

Bitget's ticker data shows that AXL rose above 0.5 USDT and is now at 0.5164 USDT, up 20.34% in 24H.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) formally accepted the WisdomTree XRP ETF application for public comment on Wednesday.The SEC requested that comments be submitted within 21 days of publication in the Federal Register. The agency may decide to approve, reject or ‘initiate further review proceedings’.